CURRENT CULTURAL LANDSCAPE

The political campaign season is fully underway, with less than 90 days until the presidential election. The Democratic National Convention virtual roll call to nominate Vice President Harris began on August 1^st (1), and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has been announced as the Democrat vice presidential nominee (1). Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump and Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance are focused on increasing presence and support in battleground states (1, 2).

Local and national media are covering upcoming campaign activities, including the Democratic National Convention scheduled for August 19^th – 22^nd and the debate between Harris and Trump confirmed for September 10^th on ABC, which continues to be a point of contention (1). The current climate remains politically polarized, and social media has emerged as the central arena for public dialogue (1). We can expect this to continue as both parties aim to rally their base and influence voters.

TOPICS TO WATCH

With the presidential and vice-presidential candidates in place, momentum has shifted to each parties’ platforms. Below are key issues that may have corporate brand implications:

• Gun Control: Vice President Harris has been a major advocate for gun control and has expressed support for policies, including passage of so-called red flag laws, universal background checks and a prohibition of sales of assault weapons to civilians (1).
• Abortion/Reproductive Rights: Vice President Harris and her running mate Governor Tim Walz have both been outspoken about their support of abortion, In Vitro Fertilization (IVF), and reproductive rights throughout the campaign (1, 2). The largest pro-choice groups such as Emily’s List and Reproductive Freedom For All have endorsed Harris and donated to her campaign (1). On the other side, Trump and Vance remain committed to highlighting the overturning of Roe v. Wade as a Trump administration achievement. As both parties continue on the campaign trail, it is likely that the conversation around reproductive rights will stay relevant in media and social media conversations around the election.
• Union/Labor Issues: Vice President Harris has received a number of endorsements from unions, including the AFL-CIO, Service Employees International Union (SEIU), the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) (1). Notably, the United Auto Workers union voiced their support for Harris recently in a strategic move that experts say may win Harris the support of the working class in the swing state of Michigan (1). Harris’s running mate Walz has been a vocal advocate for higher minimum wages, often highlighting the importance of fair pay in building a strong middle class and reducing poverty (1).
• Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI): DEI has emerged as a pivotal issue for corporate brands to monitor closely during this election. Both major political parties are addressing DEI on their platforms, albeit with differing approaches that could have significant implications for businesses. Vice President Harris has a history of advocating for civil rights and social justice, and the Democratic campaign is presenting their efforts to create equitable opportunities in the workplace, address systemic racism, and support minority-owned businesses. On the other hand, Trump and Vance have taken a more moderate approach to DEI, aligning with voters who feel such initiatives are an overreach or unnecessary, especially in employee hiring or college admissions. Their platform may appeal to businesses that prefer less government intervention in corporate governance and are concerned about the impact of DEI mandates on operational flexibility. However, companies may also face increased scrutiny and backlash from consumers and advocacy groups if they are perceived as not supporting DEI efforts.
• Immigration: Immigration continues to be an important topic for both parties in the 2024 presidential election. In a recent interview, Trump made remarks about immigrants taking “Black jobs,” which received backlash from the Black community (1). It sparked additional conversations and research into whether immigrants were taking American jobs or how immigration affects the US economy (1). Vice President Harris has also recently mentioned immigration at recent rallies, discussing her experience “prosecuting transnational gangs and drug traffickers as the attorney general of a border state” (1).
• The Economy: A fluctuating market and a jobs report that was weaker than expected have increased calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, a position favored by Vice President Harris (1). A recent CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows that Trump leads Harris 48% to 46% when it comes to economic questions among voters (1). Reports of consumer spending decreasing are likely to be part of the political topics covered by both presidential candidates (1).
• Foreign Policy: As the presidential race intensifies, the stark differences in foreign policy between the candidates are becoming increasingly relevant for corporate brands. Vice President Harris emphasizes international alliances, climate initiatives like the Paris Agreement (1), and a balanced approach to human rights, including in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Her policy aligns with multilateralism and global cooperation, particularly through NATO (1) (2). In contrast, Trump advocates for economic decoupling from China (1), strong support for Israel, and prioritizing U.S. energy independence, often at the expense of global climate agreements. His policies are more nationalist, focusing on protecting American interests (1) (2). These differing approaches could significantly affect corporations, depending on their global exposure and industry focus.

2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TIMELINE & POTENTIAL RISKS

Early Voting and Election Day: Sept. 6th – Nov. 5th

During early voting and on Election Day, spikes in misinformation about mail-in and in-person voting are possible, and social media will continue to be a platform for voters to express their viewpoints. We also anticipate increased physical security as potential threats and intimidation, or violence against election workers, are evaluated nationwide (1, 2). Be prepared for races to be called days to weeks later if votes are close.

Tabulation and Certification Period: Nov.5th – Dec. 11th

Following the election on November 5^th, state electors will convene to vote for the president and vice president. This year, a process that has historically been a procedural vote will be closely monitored for any instances of coercion or violence targeting state electors (1). The winner of the presidential race may be contested or not announced for days following the election, as was the case in 2020. Knowing this, we can anticipate that protests are possible, especially if the timeline is extended or swing states are challenged.

Leading to Inauguration Day: Jan. 3rd – 20th

After the holiday season, the newly elected Congress will be sworn into office on January 3^rd and will count electoral votes on January 6^th. In the days leading up to Inauguration Day on January 20^th, incitement or extremist mobilization targeting the ceremony is possible. We will closely follow this timeline and monitor for any mentions of protests, violence or disruptions.

GENERAL GUIDELINES

• Neutral Positioning: We suggest clients maintain a nonpartisan stance in all public. Avoid endorsing or condemning any political candidates or their platforms, as doing so can alienate segments of your customer base.
• Focus on Core Values: Given today’s political climate, it is recommended that our clients emphasize their organization’s commitment to its core values—such as innovation, customer service, and community engagement—without tying these values to any political. This approach reinforces their identity without appearing politically motivated.
• Monitor and Respond: Given the heightened political climate, many brands are finding themselves mentioned by political figures or within political discourse from citizens in social. We advise our clients to actively monitor social media and news coverage for any references to their brands in a political context. If a brand becomes inadvertently associated with a political issue, it is generally advisable to refrain from responding, as engagement can often escalate the situation. However, in certain cases where a response is necessary, we recommend issuing a neutral, fact-based statement. This response should clarify the company’s position without taking sides and reaffirm the company’s commitment to serving all customers impartially.
• Employee Communications: Political discussions in the workplace are inevitable, especially during elections. We recommend that our clients provide clear guidelines to employees on how to engage in such discussions, particularly on company platforms, when representing the company publicly and also through personal channels when individuals are easily linked back to their employers. Therefore, it’s important to remind employees to remain respectful, professional, and to maintain an inclusive environment. If your company provides time off to vote, continue to promote it through internal channels to show the company’s support for civic engagement. Do not include any references to candidates or ballot measures in the communication.
• Engagement with Social Issues: If a client has a history of engaging in social issues, they can continue doing so, as long as it aligns with their organization’s long-standing values. However, it is crucial to carefully evaluate any statements or actions during the election season to avoid misinterpretation or potential backlash.

If you would like to learn more about how to carefully navigate the fast-moving, highly polarized news environment, please reach out to Golin’s 2024 election communications experts by sending an email to elections@golin.com.